Final Oscar Nomination Predictions!

 

With the Oscar nominations coming on Thursday, it’s time to make the final predictions as to who will make the final cut:

american-hustle

BEST PICTURE:
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf Of Wall Street
6. Philomena
7. Nebraska
8. Saving Mr. Banks
9. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
10. Dallas Buyers Club

Just missing: Inside Llewyn Davis, Her, Blue Jasmine 

Now this is tough to predict because depending how voters fill up their ballot, there could be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees for Best Picture. It depends on how many #1 votes films get.  So I’ve ranked them in order, so if there’s 6 nominees, the top 6 will get in. If there’s 7 nominees, the top 7 get nominated, and so on.  The top 7 seem pretty set, but the other 3 spots get tougher (if they happen).  Saving Mr. Banks and Lee Daniels’ The Butler have been snubbed a lot by other organizations, but they’ve also gotten some really key nominations as well. I just can’t see the Academy ignored these uplifting American stories that audiences loved. Dallas Buyers Club has come on strong in buzz the last few weeks, and if it’s going to possibly win both Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, it should get in at Best Picture as well.

hanks

BEST ACTOR:
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Runners-Up:
Forest Whitaker, The Butler
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Christian Bale, American Hustle

Ejiofor, Hanks, McConaughey, and Dern have been far ahead in this race for a while for nominations, and there’s no reason to think that any of them will be snubbed.  It’s been a fight for that last slot, and it looks like Leo’s late surge just might get him in.  If he does, all bets are off who takes this thing.  Whitaker and Redford are the other major threats to get in, but I think Leo will get in.

gravity-movie-review-sandra-bullock-suit-2

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Amy Adams, American Hustle 

Or maybe…Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

A month or so this category seemed set in stone, with Adams missing the cut. Well now Adams has really started to come on strong with a lot of buzz. Her Globe win doesn’t affect Oscar voters (ballots were already turned in), but it does show that there’s support for her.  The question is, who does she boot if she does make it in?  Blanchett and Bullock are untouchable, and Dench is very likely too.  So Thompson or Streep? As crazy as it seems, I’m gonna say Streep gets (wrongly) snubbed. Voters really have to choose who to triumph, and I think it’s easier to support Adams and Thompson’s performance than Streep who is always nominated…but this is a real nailbiter.

leto

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Daniel Bruhl, Rush

Runners-Up:
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Harrison Ford, 42

Leto, Fassbender, Abdi for sure. Then it’s a guessing game.  With so many half-baked contenders, Bradley Cooper seems set for back-to-back nominations because he’s in a big Best Picture frontrunner. For that last slot, somehow Daniel Bruhl has scored all the right nominations to get in at Oscars, and Tom Hanks (as Walt Disney) has surprisingly not.  But Hanks could really surprise and be a double nominee.

Lupita-Nyong-o

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
June Squibb, Nebraska
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

Runners-Up:
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Not a lot of doubt here. Winfrey only seems like the only vulnerable one, and there’s really no one to take her place, unless the Academy really loves Blue Jasmine or Dallas Buyers Club enough to give their supporting lady a nom too.  Surprise nominations for big movies often happen in this category, so it’s not impossible.

leo

Best Director:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf Of Wall Street

Runners-Up:
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Spike Jonze, Her
Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Scorsese is the only possible snub here, and if he is, his spot will be taken by Payne, but I think Nebraska will be seen as a more of an acting and writing achievement than directing, while Wolf is a major Scorsese showcase.


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