The State Of The Oscars: Post Globe, SAG Nominations

 

After the Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globes nominations came out this week, it gives us a clearer picture of how the Oscar race is looking…kinda.  Here’s the latest on the major categories:

american-hustle

BEST PICTURE:
Sure bets:
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
American Hustle
Captain Phillips

Likely:
The Wolf Of Wall Street
The Butler
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska

Possible:
Her
Saving Mr. Banks
Philomena
Rush
Fruitvale Station

Since the Globes split up the films into drama and comedy/musicals with 5 nominees each, you could just slap these categories together for Oscar final 10 for Best Picture, right? Wrong. Sure, you can 12 Years A Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, and Captain Phillips as sure things, but after that things get a bit dicey.  The Butler got ignored at the Globes, but the American story probably didn’t appeal to the Foreign Press, but don’t expect the Academy to follow suit. It was a huge hit, has a very high profile, and it’s totally the type of film that gets nominated for Oscars.  On the other side of the coin, Rush’surprise nomination at the Globes won’t happen at the Oscars, and Her might be too weird for Oscar voters.  Philomena is also unlikely to get a Best Picture nom, especially if (the surprisingly snubbed at the Globes) Saving Mr. Banks proves to be a holiday box-office hit.

hanks

BEST ACTOR:
Sure Bets:
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

The 5th slot contenders:
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Forest Whitaker, The Butler
Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

In an extremely tight race, Ejiofor, Hanks, McConaughey, and Dern have grabbed all the necessary noms so they are safe to make it into the Oscar race. Everyone else is fighting over ONE spot, so it’s anyone’s game.  Isaac is lacking the buzz to compete with the big boys, Bale’s buzz is competing with his own Out Of The Furnace and his American Hustle co-stars, Elba has more sympathy votes with Mandela’s death but the movie isn’t getting amazing reviews which makes it tough in a tight race, and Phoenix got a nom last year despite bashing the Oscars yet Her might prove to be too offbeat. The three likely contenders are Redford, DiCaprio, and Whitaker.  Redford’s movie hasn’t done well and he honestly doesn’t deserve the nom. DiCaprio’s nom is dependant on how much the Academy likes The Wolf Of Wall Street which has been hit-and-miss so far on the awards circuit.  Whitaker was snubbed by the Globes, but made it into the top 5 for SAGs. It’s too close to call at this point.

gravity-movie-review-sandra-bullock-suit-2

BEST ACTRESS
Sure Bets:
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena

Likely:
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Amy Adams, American Hustle 

Possible:
Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue Is The Warmest Color

A great year for this category has become a lot clearer in the past couple of weeks. Reality is this is a total showdown between Cate Blanchett and Sandra Bullock. Everyone else will be also rans. Judi Dench has great reviews and both Globe and SAG nominations so she’s in too. Then we have 3 ladies fighting over 2 spots. Emma and Meryl both got SAG and Globe nods, so they seem likely, but Adams (who grabbed a Globe nomination in the Comedy category) could sneak in if the love for American Hustle is huge.  It also hurts Meryl that she won so recently and despite how good she is, August: Osage County is getting some mixed reaction. That being said, at this point, I’m betting they’ll stick with Emma and Meryl, since Jennifer Lawrence is grabbing all the female American Hustle buzz.

leto

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Sure Bets:
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Likely:
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Possible:
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Jonah Hill, Wolf Of Wall Street
Harrison Ford, 42

Leto and Fassbender have been picking up nominations and awards left and right so they are in. Bruhl has somehow pulled off both SAG and Globe nominations for Rush, a film that bombed, but he’s not a sure thing since Oscars always make some changes and he seems like someone who could be snubbed. Abdi has gotten Globe and SAG noms too, and while he totally deserves to be nominated, I think his inclusion is dependant on the love the Academy has for Captain Phillips.  Bradley Cooper grabbed a Globe nod and seems likely to ride the American Hustle buzz to back-to-back nomination. Hanks has surprisingly been snubbed by both the SAGs and Globes for this performance, but let’s not forget that he’s playing Walt Disney in a story about Hollywood.  Don’t count him out to grab a nomination. He’s Tom freakin’ Hanks. He can easily be a double nominee. Unfortunately for Harrison Ford, he needed SAG and/or Globe nominations to start building momentum to get into the Oscar race for 42.  It’s a shame because it’s the best performance he’s ever given, but the early release proved to be his downfall.

Lupita-Nyong-o

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Sure Bets:
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
June Squibb, Nebraska

Likely:
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Possible:
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Nyong’o is becoming the ingenue of the awards circuit. Everyone loves her and she’s in a big Best Picture contender. She’s a lock.  American Hustle finally got seen very late in the game, but once people saw it, Lawrence was labelled as “Best In Show” in a great ensemble.  She’s suddenly a possible contender to win repeat Oscars.  Oprah Winfrey was the frontrunner to win but suddenly got snubbed by the Globes.  Once again, the American story probably didn’t do much for the Foreign Press.  She’ll still get a nomination, but a win will be tougher now.  June Squibb has quietly grabbed all the necessary nominations so there’s no reason to think that she’ll be snubbed.  There’s totally category fraud going on with Julia Roberts (she should be in lead alongside Meryl), but she’s gotten SAG and Globe noms in this category, so the Oscars just might accept it.  Hawkins and Garner seem unlikely, but they could ride their co-stars’ buzz to nominations. We’ve seen it happen before in this category and they were both solid enough to justify getting in.

 

 

 

 

 


2 Comments

  1. Jason Travis December 15, 2013 1:30 am  Reply

    Nice layout- and very solid predictions. I am wondering how the Best Actress race with fan out. I am rooting for Blanchett, but you never can underestimate the power of the media and Bullock. Best Picture is still wide open. If Amy Adams gets in, I am guessing she will bump Thompson, not Streep (Saving Mr. Banks seems to be fading).

    Great blog site!

    I have a YouTube channel you would probably like: youtube.com/jasonmovieguy

    Let me know what you think, I am interested in doing what you’re doing now- really getting into the Entertainment Host circuit for Red Carpet events. Fun to see you on Goldderby too!

    • Graeme O'Neil December 15, 2013 2:26 am  Reply

      “Saving Mr. Banks” definitely didn’t perform as well at the SAGs and Globes as expected. I just saw it today. It’s very solid, but it’s not a Best Picture winner. I think the big factor is how it does at the box office. I feel like it could really breakout at the box office, and if it does, I think Thompson will be more of a sure thing.

      I don’t think the Actress race is as set in stone as people think it is. I don’t think Dench, Thompson and Streep will all get in. One of the veterans will be left out.

      I noticed that Goldderby is starting rumblings that Bullock is vulnerable. Gimme a break. She’s not.

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