2013 Emmy Predictions!

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Best Drama Series:
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game Of Thrones
Homeland
House Of Cards
Mad Men

Other than Mad Men (its first sub-par season) and Downton Abbey (buzz has diminished), this was a close 4-way race a few weeks ago. Now with Breaking Bad’s final episodes airing when people were voting (those episodes will be eligible next year) and its insane ratings increase, I think it’s finally going to take the top award. Homeland could repeat though.

Best Actress In A Drama Series:
Connie Britton, Nashville
Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House Of Cards

Washington doesn’t deserve this award, but she submitted a solid tape and she’s got a lot of buzz right now. Plus she’ll be the first black actress to win this award. Dan Bucatinsky already won Guest Actor for Scandal, so it shows that voters are willing to give this show awards. Danes could repeat (and she deserves to), but I think Washington’s buzz is too hard to ignore.

Best Actor in a Drama Series:
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damien Lewis, Homeland
Kevin Spacey, House Of Cards

An extremely tough category. Bonneville doesn’t have a chance. Daniels has a great tape (he submitted the pilot episode where he gets to deliver that great monologue), but The Newsroom isn’t liked enough.  Lewis actually had a better season than last season (which he won for). Hamm had another strong season and has still yet to win. Cranston is Best In Show but he already has 3 and I have a feeling voters will wait til next year to honour him one more time. House Of Cards had a milestone breakthrough by getting major nominations and movie star Spacey will be the way they honour the show.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series:
Morena Baccarin, Homeland
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Emilia Clarke, Game Of Thrones
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

This is Smith vs. Gunn.  Smith has yet to lose for her scene-stealing work on Abbey, and how do you bet against a Dame? Well, I’m hopeful that voters will finally award Gunn for her incredible work as Skylar White. She submitted a fantastic tape, and with the final episodes airing right now (where she’s doing more great work), I’m hopeful the voters will finally throw it her way.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series:
Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage, Game Of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

This is a tough category with only Jim Carter having no shot. Dinklage already won and there doesn’t seem much sentiment to have him win again.  Banks could win for his outstanding season, but since Giancarlo Esposito (who played the iconic role of Gus) lost last year, I doubt they’ll go for Banks’ less impactful season of work. Cannavale was a scene stealer, but doesn’t have much screentime in his submitted tape. Paul has the benefit of being in 2 submitted tapes, but he had his least prominent season on the show, and I’m thinking the voters realize they still have one more time to vote for him next year.  So I’m going with Patinkin who got a nomination this year after being robbed last year.  People love him on Homeland, he submitted a good tape, and he’s a veteran. It’s a tight race, but I’ll give him the advantage.

Best Comedy Series:
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Louie
Modern Family
Veep

Louie is too niche to win the big award. Girls is too polarizing. Veep has a shot, but it didn’t get a writing or directing nomination which means it doesn’t have broad support.  The Big Bang Theory is the biggest show on television and it hasn’t won this award yet, so it’s always a threat, but if voters want to go with something popular, they’ll go with the smarter and cooler Modern Family.  30 Rock could pull off a farewell win, but the Emmys rarely go for that, so it looks like Modern Family will win for a fourth time.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series:
Laura Dern, Enlightened
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks And Recreation

All these ladies are spectacular, but Louis-Dreyfus is the most nominated actress in Emmy history for a reason. She’s one of the best ever. Veep was even better in its second season, and she still has a ton of buzz. Unfortunately, I think Poehler’s moment has passed to win for this role.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series:
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Louis C.K., Louie
Don Cheadle, House Of Lies
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Baldwin could get a farewell win, and 2-time winner Parsons is always a threat, so they are definitely possibilities. Bateman ends up (surprisingly) being the sole Arrested Development nominee after its polarizing season. That could mean that there’s no way he’ll win, or it could mean that he wins because it’s the only way to honour Arrested Development. Plus Bateman is a way bigger movie star now than he was when AD was originally airing. But I think they’ll go for Louis C.K. He won 2 Emmys last year, and the show is nominated for Series this year, so they obviously love the show, and I think they are ready to give him this big award.

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series:
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Jane Lynch, Glee
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie

The big question is whether or not Jane Krakowski can finally win the Emmy for her hilarious work as Jenna Maroney on the final season of 30 Rock. Tina Fey has been very vocal that Jane should have an Emmy for this role.  Krakowski submitted the series finale, so that’s a great choice (The Rural Juror song!), but is it enough to take down defending 2-time winner Julie Bowen? I don’t know. The Emmys rarely go for farewell Emmys, so I’ll stick with the excellent Bowen.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series:
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Adam Driver, Girls
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Tony Hale, Veep
Ed O’Neill, Modern Family

None of the non-Modern Family guys are strong enough to take down the trio, so one of the Family guys will win. O’Neill could finally score an Emmy, but Burrell was the MVP of the season, and he’s submitted another great tape. I think he’ll be back in the winners’ circle.

Best Miniseries/Movie:
American Horror Story: Asylum
Behind The Candelabra
The Bible
Phil Spector
Political Animals
Top Of The Lake

What a great category this year. American Horror Story: Asylum has the most nominations, but there’s no denying Soderbergh/Douglas/Damon in this category. Behind The Candelabra has already won 8 technical Emmys, so this is a shooin.

Best Actress in a Miniseries/Movie:
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum
Laura Linney, The Big C: Hereafter
Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
Elisabeth Moss, Top of The Lake
Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals

Voters might finally take the chance to award Mad Men‘s Elisabeth Moss, since she’ll never win for that show, but Lange will probably repeat for playing a completely different character in the second season of the horror story.

Best Actor in a Miniseries/Movie:
Benedict Cumberbatch, Parade’s End
Matt Damon, Behind The Candelabra
Michael Douglas, Behind The Candelabra
Toby Jones, The Girl
Al Pacino, Phil Spector

This is Douglas vs. Damon, and while Damon deserves the award just as much as Douglas, the story was about Liberace and it would be weird to award Damon over Douglas.

Best Supporting Actress in a Miniseries/Movie:
Ellen Burstyn, Political Animals
Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Asylum
Charlotte Rampling, Restless
Imelda Staunton, The Girl
Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias

It seems crazy to bet against Burstyn and Woodard, but Paulson was a major force on AHS this season and she’s been a venerable performer on television for years now. It seems like it’s her time to get this award.

Best Supporting Actor in a Miniseries/Movie:
Scott Bakula, Behind The Candelabra
James Cromwell, American Horror Story: Asylum
John Benjamin Hickey, The Big C: Hereafter
Peter Mullan, Top Of The Lake
Zachary Quinto, American Horrory Story: Asylum

Seems like one of the AHS guys will take this one, and veteran Cromwell seems like a more likely choice.

Outstanding Reality Competition Program:
The Amazing Race
Dancing With The Stars
Project Runway

So You Think You Can Dance
Top Chef
The Voice

Since this category was created in 2003, The Amazing Race has only lost once. It was in 2010 to Top Chef. That means the show has won 10 times. So why the heck would you bet against it?


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